Deciphering the Decline Effect

A prospective replication project involving systematic replication of novel findings produced in the normal course of research by four labs. The purpose is to develop a gold standard for replication protocol, in which every effort is made to design experiments and implement replications in a manner that will maximize the likelihood of full replicability. We will examine whether the replications of newly devised experimental protocols are associated with declining effect sizes, even when all reasonable efforts are made to minimize such declines. If declining effect sizes are still observed, we will attempt to identify their possible locus by, for example, assessing whether other labs can replicate the findings as effectively as the originating lab.

一项前瞻性的复制研究项目，涉及对四个研究实验室在正常研究过程中产生的创新发现进行系统性复制。其目的在于构建一个复制协议的黄金标准，竭尽全力设计实验并实施复制，以最大化实现完全复制的可能性。我们将探讨新设计的实验协议的复制结果是否与效应量的下降相关联，即便在竭尽所能以减少此类下降的情况下。如果观察到效应量的下降，我们将尝试通过例如评估其他实验室是否能够像原始实验室那样有效地复制发现等方法，来确定其可能的原因。