Cumulative evidence synthesis and consideration of "research waste" using Bayesian methods: An example updating a previous meta-analysis of self-talk interventions for sport/motor performance

In the present paper we demonstrate the application of methods for cumulative evidence synthesis including Bayesian meta-analysis, and exploration of questionable research practices such as publication bias or p-hacking, in the sport and exercise sciences for the evaluation of experimental interventions. The use of such methods can aid in study planning and avoid "research waste". In demonstrating and discussing these methods we use the example of self-talk interventions and their effects upon sport/motor performance given a quantitative evidence synthesis has not been conducted on this topic, to the best of our knowledge, since 2011 when Hatzigeorgiadis et al. (2011) conducted their systematic review and meta-analysis. As such, this topic is ripe to use in demonstrating cumulative methods such as Bayesian updating. Therefore, our aim was to conduct an updated systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis replicating the search, inclusion, and models of Hatzigeorgiadis et al. (2011)and demonstrate the application of cumulative evidence synthesis methods including; consideration of the initial probability that a new study of the effects of self-talk interventions would shift our prior belief in their effectiveness, the application of priors taken from the previous meta-analysis to be updated by new studies identified to a new posterior estimate of effect, and consideration of other possible sources of research waste from questionable research practices such as publication bias and p-hacking. Such methods as those demonstrated here, when used prospectively, can aid researchers in determining whether further research of a particular experimental intervention is in fact warranted. Considering the limited resources and time for conducting research we hope that highlighting the application of these methods might help researchers in the field to avoid research waste and more productively direct their research efforts.

本文旨在展示累积证据综合方法，包括贝叶斯荟萃分析和可疑研究实践的探索，如发表偏倚或p值操纵，在体育与运动科学领域应用于评估实验干预措施的应用。此类方法的运用有助于研究计划的制定，并避免‘研究浪费’。在展示和讨论这些方法的过程中，我们以自我对话干预及其对体育/运动表现影响的定量证据综合为例，因为据我们所知，自2011年Hatzigeorgiadis等人（2011）进行其系统评价和荟萃分析以来，尚未对此主题进行过定量证据综合。因此，本主题非常适合用于展示累积方法，如贝叶斯更新。因此，我们的目标是进行一项更新的系统评价和贝叶斯荟萃分析，复制Hatzigeorgiadis等人（2011）的搜索、纳入和模型，并展示累积证据综合方法的运用，包括；考虑一项新研究对自我对话干预效果的新信念可能改变我们先前信念的初始概率，应用从先前荟萃分析中获取的先验，通过新识别的研究更新到新的后验效应估计，以及考虑其他可能源自可疑研究实践（如发表偏倚和p值操纵）的研究浪费来源。当此类方法被前瞻性使用时，可以帮助研究人员确定是否确实有必要进行特定实验干预的进一步研究。考虑到进行研究的资源有限和时间有限，我们希望强调这些方法的运用可能有助于该领域的研究人员避免研究浪费，并更有效地指导他们的研究工作。