symulationvertigo.sce

The rare and vulnerable land snail <i>Vertigo moulinsiana </i>faces significant threats from climate change, particularly through the loss of snow cover, which serves as a vital thermal buffer during winter. This study develops a population dynamics model to investigate how key life history traits, such as overwintering strategies and seasonal reproduction, influence the intra-seasonal abundance patterns of this species. Using empirical data and simulated scenarios of snow cover disappearance, we assess the impacts of varying winter temperature minima on population survival and growth.The model revealed that snow cover critically maintains subnivium stability, protecting populations from lethal freezing temperatures. Scenarios simulating snowless winters showed that even moderate temperature reductions (-5.5°C) caused a fourfold decrease in population growth, while extreme conditions (-14°C) led to rapid population extinction. Despite phenotypic plasticity in cold tolerance, indicated by variability in supercooling points, this short-term resilience was insufficient to mitigate the long-term impacts of snow loss.Our findings emphasize the importance of integrating life history traits into ecological models to predict population responses to environmental change. Conservation strategies should prioritize preserving microhabitats that buffer extreme conditions and mitigating the impacts of snow cover loss. This study bridges theoretical modeling and practical conservation, providing critical insights into the management of V. moulinsiana and other snow-dependent species under climate change.