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<p>Regime-stratified probabilistic performance by horizon (aligned evaluation). Outbreak months are defined by , where thr<sub><i>h</i></sub> is the horizon-specific threshold used in the regime split. Tail-miss rate is the percentage of times <i>y</i><sub><i>t</i>+<i>h</i></sub> exceeds the upper 90% predictive interval bound.</p>

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Digital Science - Figshare2026-03-27 更新2026-03-28 收录
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<p>Regime-stratified probabilistic performance by horizon (aligned evaluation). Outbreak months are defined by , where thr<sub><i>h</i></sub> is the horizon-specific threshold used in the regime split. Tail-miss rate is the percentage of times <i>y</i><sub><i>t</i>+<i>h</i></sub> exceeds the upper 90% predictive interval bound.</p>

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2026-03-27
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