Prolonged Ocean Warming Since 2023 Challenges Traditional Seasonal Forecasting

The marine heatwaves induced record-breaking sea surface temperatures over the past three years and have plunged the Earth’s climate system into chaos, driving countless climate disasters. Traditional seasonal climate forecasting models, reliant on El Niño dynamics, failed to predict this prolonged ocean warming, exposing their limitations. A dynamic-statistical approach can enhance seasonal marine heatwave forecasts, offering critical early warnings for climate adaptation.