APPLICATION OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO PREDICT STOCK PERFORMANCE BASED ON CAPITAL GAIN MARGINS AND COMPANY CHARACTERISTICS IN MULTI-SECTORS ON THE INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE

This study explores the application of Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the performance of selected stocks on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) by incorporating capital gain margins and company-specific characteristics. The research focuses on five stocks representing multiple sectors, namely EDGE (technology), PTSN (telecommunications), DSSA (energy), PTBA (mining), and PANI (property development). By simulating potential future stock prices through randomized modeling of market growth, bear market effects, and inflation-adjusted returns, the study aims to provide a more robust prediction framework for investment performance. The simulation integrates both historical performance data and relevant company fundamentals, allowing for sectoral comparison and identifying patterns of volatility and resilience across different industries. The key metrics analyzed include capital gain margins, portfolio value growth, and sensitivity to market downturns, which are evaluated over multiple time horizons through iterative Monte Carlo simulations. The purpose of this study is solely to conduct simulations using the Monte Carlo method in order to illustrate potential stock performance scenarios. This research does not intend to provide any form of investment advice or recommendation regarding the purchase of the selected stocks.