Seasonal Fire Weather Index Analysis – Italy (2007–2024)

📌 OverviewThis repository contains all the necessary scripts and input data to reproduce the analysis of the seasonal Fire Weather Index (FWI) indicators for Italy between 2007–2024 (18 years).
The workflow consists of three R scripts that calculate mean/median FWI values, burned area statistics, and relationships between fire danger indicators and observed burned areas.
⚠️ Important Notes🔹 Dataset provenanceThe FWI dataset used here originates from the Copernicus Climate Data Store.This dataset is no longer supported by the data providers. Data and documentation are provided as is. Users are encouraged to consult the CDS Forum for any discussions or clarifications.The original NetCDF (nc) files contained:Seasonal data: June–September (fire season)Indicator: Fire Weather Index (FWI)Scenario: RCP2.6Aggregation: Multi-model mean caseThese NetCDF files were reprojected using Climate Data Operators (CDO) to a regular lon/lat grid before being included here.Reprojection grid specification:
gridtype = lonlatxsize = 1000ysize = 460xfirst = -45xinc = 0.11yfirst = 22yinc = 0.11📂 Folder StructureAfter downloading, place the folder in the following path:
C:/NERO2025/
The folder should contain:
C:/NERO2025/
│── Script 01 C3S Analysis.R # Step 1 – FWI annual mean & median
│── Script 02 Burned Areas Per Region.R # Step 2 – Burned areas per ecoregion
│── Script 03 Scatter Plots FWI vs Burned Area.R # Step 3 – FWI–burned area link
│── IB_ITA_2007_2024_v_1.shp # Shapefile of burned areas
│── subsez_ecoregioni_IT_proj.shp # Shapefile of Italian ecoregions
│── other shapefile files (.dbf, .shx, etc.)
▶️ WorkflowStep 1: Annual FWI statisticsRun Script 01 C3S Analysis.R
Calculates mean and median seasonal FWI values per year for Italy and per ecoregion.Outputs:FWI_Mean_Table.csvFWI_Median_Table.csvStep 2: Burned areas per ecoregionRun Script 02 Burned Areas Per Region.R
Intersects burned areas with Italian ecoregions.Calculates:Absolute burned area per year & ecoregionRelative burned area (% of ecoregion burned)Performs trend analysis using linear regression & Mann-Kendall.Outputs:BurnedArea_Ecoregions.csvRelativeBurnedArea_Ecoregions.csvBurnedArea_Ecoregions_Trends.csvPlots saved in BurnedArea_Trends_Plots/Step 3: Linking FWI and burned areasRun Script 03 Scatter Plots FWI vs Burned Area.R
Merges FWI tables (Step 1) with burned area statistics (Step 2).Generates scatterplots with regression fits, showing the relationship between FWI and burned areas.Outputs:Plots saved in FWI_Burned_ScatterPlots/CSVs of data used for each plot⚠️ Dependencies:
Script 03 requires the results of Scripts 01 & 02. Therefore, always run them in sequence.