Multidecadal wind-driven shifts in northwest Pacific temperature, salinity, O2, and PO4 Global Biogeochemical Cycles

The North Pacific gyre boundaries are characterized by stark contrasts in physical and biogeochemical properties. Meridional movement of gyre boundaries, influenced by climate change, can therefore exert a large influence not only on marine ecosystems but also on climate. We examine the evidence for wind-driven southward shifts in subsurface temperature, salinity, PO4, and O2 within the northwest Pacific from the 1950s to the 2000s. Gyre boundary shifts can explain 30–60% of temperature and salinity trends zonally averaged in the northwest Pacific and observed PO4 and O2 trends along the 137°E and 144°E meridians. The close tie between the wind-driven shifts in gyre boundaries and the tracer distributions is further supported by results from an eddy-resolving (0.1° × 0.1°) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate model, suggesting that the physical and biogeochemical properties averaged within the northwest Pacific gyre boundaries closely follow the latitude changes of the zero Sverdrup stream function with lags of 0 to 3 years. The gyre shift effect on tracer distribution is poorly represented in a coarse resolution (1° × 1°) model due partly to poor representations of fronts and eddies. This study suggests that future changes in northwest Pacific PO4 and O2 content may depend not only on ocean temperature and stratification but also on the ocean gyre response to winds. 2016 O2 and nutrient variability temperature and salinity variability gyre circulation wind variability North Pacific high‐resolution climate model OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Submitted https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005442 Other 1954