Model selection as a tool for phylogeographic inference: an example from the willow Salix melanopsis

Phylogeographic inference has typically relied on analyses of data from one or a few genes to provide estimates of demography and population histories. While much has been learned from these studies, all phylogeographic analysis is conditioned on the data, and thus, inferences derived from data that represent a small sample of the genome are unavoidably tenuous. Here, we demonstrate one approach for moving beyond classic phylogeographic research. We use sequence capture probes and Illumina sequencing to generate data from >400 loci in order to infer the phylogeographic history of Salix melanopsis, a riparian willow with a disjunct distribution in coastal and the inland Pacific Northwest. We evaluate a priori phylogeographic hypotheses using coalescent models for parameter estimation, and the results support earlier findings that identified post-Pleistocene dispersal as the cause of the disjunction in S. melanopsis. We also conduct a series of model selection exercises using IMa2, Mig...