Replication Materials for "Two Shocks, One Trace: Geopolitical and Generative AI Shocks in Reported Cyber Events"

This repository contains the replication materials for the article, “Two Shocks, One Trace: Geopolitical and Generative AI Shocks in Reported Cyber Events.” The study examines whether two major external shocks produced measurable changes in publicly reported cyber activity: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 and the public release of ChatGPT on 30 November 2022. The analysis distinguishes between a geopolitical participation shock, expected to mobilize actors such as hacktivists, and a technological capability shock, expected to affect financially motivated cyber activity. The original event-level records were obtained from the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland Cyber Events Database. The data extract was obtained on 1 July 2026. The primary analysis covers January 2017 through December 2024, while the extended data through May 2026 are used for additional robustness analyses. The replication package includes the derived monthly analytical dataset, variable definitions, data-cleaning and aggregation documentation, statistical analysis code, model outputs, and materials used to reproduce the reported tables and figures. The analyses include two-break segmented regression models with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent standard errors, count-model robustness checks, placebo tests, alternative intervention dates, lag specifications, and counterfactual analyses. The repository is designed to allow independent researchers to understand the construction of the analytical variables and reproduce the main statistical results reported in the article. Users should consult the included README file for information about file organization, software requirements, variable construction, analytical procedures, and reproduction steps. The original CISSM event-level database remains available through the data provider and may be subject to registration or access conditions. This repository provides the derived analytical materials and reproducibility documentation associated with the article.