Key model parameter values.

BackgroundAmong individuals with sickle cell disease (SCD), decreased hemoglobin is associated with lower oxygen saturation (SpO2) and increased risk of stroke, both of which are associated with lower intelligence quotient (IQ) scores. Thus, increasing hemoglobin and SpO2 in individuals with SCD may increase IQ and educational attainment.MethodsA cohort simulation model was built to determine academic performance and educational attainment based on cognitive function (measured by IQ) of a pediatric SCD cohort randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. The model contained two key stages: childhood (2 (assigned to the treatment group) were determinants of higher IQ, prevention of IQ deterioration over time. Increased hemoglobin was also a determinant of decreased stroke risk. In stage 2, improvement in adolescent IQ as a result of treatment was a determinant of academic performance.ResultsIn a simulated cohort of 2000 children and adolescents with SCD (52.5% female, 50% treated), stroke incidence was predicted to be 44.4% lower among the treated group than the untreated group (4.5% versus 8.1%, respectively). The average IQ among the treated group was estimated to be 91.1 compared with 82.9 in the untreated group (a 9.9% difference; PConclusionsOur model predicts that an average improvement in hemoglobin of 1.1 g/dL (11 g/L) among individuals with SCD may be associated with improved neurocognition and educational outcomes. These improvements may also generate benefits not captured by our model, including improved quality of life, employment, and income.