Reproducibility package for "Evaluating the Added Value of Decomposition for Monthly Temperature Forecasting: A Leakage-Aware Multi-Horizon Study in the Yellow River Basin

This repository provides the data and code supporting the study “Evaluating the Added Value of Decomposition for Monthly Temperature Forecasting: A Leakage-Aware Multi-Horizon Study in the Yellow River Basin.” The study evaluates EEMD, CEEMDAN, adaptive-CEEMDAN sensitivity, SSA and VMD under a leakage-aware rolling-origin forecasting framework using monthly Yellow River Basin temperature data for 2002–2023. The repository contains the processed basin-scale modelling dataset, metadata, temporal partitions, preprocessing scripts, origin-specific decomposition routines, component-wise and frequency-routed forecasting code, tuned Ridge-ARX analysis, targeted secondary-decomposition experiments, window-length sensitivity analysis, statistical-inference procedures, initialization-robustness analysis, and scripts for reproducing the principal tables and figures. Raw ERA5 and climate-index products are not redistributed; they remain available from their original public repositories. Scripts are provided to reproduce the Yellow River Basin extraction and preprocessing workflow.