Variance in within-pair reproductive success influences the opportunity for selection annually and over the lifetimes of males in a multi-brooded songbird

In socially monogamous species, male reproductive success consists of ‘within-pair’ offspring produced with their socially-paired mate(s), and ‘extra-pair’ offspring produced with additional females throughout the population. Both reproductive pathways offer distinct opportunities for selection in wild populations, as each is composed of separate components of mate attraction, female fecundity, and paternity allocation. Identifying key sources of variance and covariance among these components is a crucial step towards understanding the reproductive strategies that males use to maximize fitness both annually and over their lifetimes. We use 16 years of complete reproductive data from a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) to partition variance in male annual and lifetime reproductive success, and thereby identify if the opportunity for selection varies over the lifetimes of individual males and what reproductive strategies likely favor maximum lifetime fitn...