Holocene extinctions of a top predator – effects of time, habitat area and habitat subdivision

1. Loss of habitat and changes in the spatial configuration of habitats are major drivers of species extinctions, but the response to these drivers differs between organisms. To advance theory on how extinction risk from different types of habitat alteration relate to species-specific traits, there is a need for studies on the long-term extinction dynamic of individual species. 2. The goal of this study was to quantify how habitat area and the spatial configuration of habitats affect extinction rate of an aquatic top-predator, the northern pike Esox lucius L. 3. We recorded presence/absence of northern pike in 398 isolated habitat fragments, each one consisting of a number of interconnected lakes. Time since isolation of the habitat fragments, caused by cut-off from the main dispersal source in the Baltic Sea, varied between 0 and 10 000 years. Using survival regression, we analysed how pike population survival was affected by time since isolation, habitat size, and habitat subdivision....