Chilean artisanal mining: a gambling scenario

Abstract One of the most characteristic aspects of artisanal mining is the lack of geological exploration. Going into production without previous exploration is here defined as a gambling scenario. The present study intended to quantify the risk associated to such gambling by analyzing the operations of an area of artisanal underground gold mining in central Chile. To quantify the risks and the probable outcomes, a risk analysis technique called Event Tree Analysis has been applied. This technique is based on the analysis of possible multiple outcomes of single events or decisions and the probability of occurrence of each. Results show that chances of negative vs. positive revenue are 83% vs. 17%, with an order of magnitude of difference between worst-case and best-case scenarios.