Systematic review of near-term ecological forecasting literature published between 1932 and 2020

This data publication includes results and code from a systematic review of near-term ecological forecasting literature. The study had two primary goals: (1) analyze the state of near-term ecological forecasting literature, and (2) compare forecast skill across ecosystems and variables. We began by conducting a Web of Science search for “forecast*” in the title, abstract, and keywords of all papers published in ecological journals, then screened all papers from this search to identify near-term ecological forecasts. We defined a near-term ecological forecast as future predictions of community, population, or biogeochemical variables ≤ 10 years from the forecast date. To more broadly survey the literature, we then searched all papers that cited or were cited by the near-term ecological forecasts we identified. We performed an in-depth review of all near-term ecological forecasting papers identified through this search process, and recorded forecast skill data for all papers that reported R or R2. Our results indicate that the rate of publication of near-term ecological forecasts is increasing over time and the field is becoming increasingly open and automated. Across published forecasts, we find that forecast skill decreases in predictable patterns and these patterns differ between forecast variables. This data publication includes three products from this analysis: (1) a database of all papers identified in the two searches, including our assessment of whether they included an ecological focal variable, included a forecast, and whether the forecast was near-term (≤10 years), (2) a matrix of all data collected on the near-term ecological forecasts we identified, and (3) a database of R2 values for papers that reported R or R2.