STORM Climate Change synthetic tropical cyclone tracks

UPDATE 22/06/2023: Tom Russell (Oxford University) and colleagues have created global .tiff maps for the return period datasets. You can find them here: https://zenodo.org/record/7438145<br>Datasets consisting of 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, generated using the Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model (STORM) algorithm (see Bloemendaal et al (2020)). The dataset is generated by extracting the climate change signal from each of the four general circulation models listed below, and adding this signal to the historical data from IBTrACS. This new dataset is then used as input for STORM, and resembles future-climate (2015-2050; RCP8.5/SSP5) conditions. The data can be used to calculate tropical cyclone risk in all (coastal) regions prone to tropical cyclones.<br>Climate change information from the following models is used in this study (each model has its own 10.000 years of STORM data):1) CMCC-CM2-VHR42) CNRM-CM6-1-HR3) EC-Earth3P-HR4) HAdGEM3-GC31-HM<br>See Roberts et al (2020) for more information on these models.

2023年6月22日更新：牛津大学汤姆·拉塞尔（Tom Russell）及其团队已针对重现期数据集制作了全球.tiff格式地图，相关地图可在此获取：https://zenodo.org/record/7438145

本数据集包含10000年合成热带气旋路径，采用合成热带气旋生成模型（Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model, STORM）算法生成（详见Bloemendaal等人2020年的研究）。该数据集的生成流程为：从下述4种通用环流模式中提取气候变化信号，并将该信号叠加至IBTrACS历史气旋数据中。将此新数据集作为STORM的输入，即可模拟未来气候（2015-2050年；典型浓度路径RCP8.5/共享社会经济路径SSP5）情景下的气旋活动。该数据可用于评估全球所有易受热带气旋影响的（沿海）地区的热带气旋风险。

本研究采用了下述模式的气候变化信息（每种模式对应一套独立的10000年STORM数据集）：
1) CMCC-CM2-VHR4
2) CNRM-CM6-1-HR
3) EC-Earth3P-HR
4) HAdGEM3-GC31-HM

有关上述模式的更多细节，可参考Roberts等人2020年的研究。