IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report LR Figure 3.2 (c1): Impact of projected global warming levels on maize yield

Changes in maize yield at projected global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.6°C–2.4o C (2.0°C), 3.3°C–4.8o C (4.1°C) and 3.9°C–6.0o C (4.9°C). Median yield changes from an ensemble of 12 crop models, each driven by bias-adjusted outputs from 5 Earth system models from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Maps depict 2080–2099 compared to 1986–2005 for current growing regions (more than 10 ha), with the corresponding range of future global warming levels shown under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Hatching indicates areas where less than 70% of the climate-crop model combinations agree on the sign of impact.