Actual prevalences of true effects obtained in the simulations for the simulated scenarios in Table 1.

Scenario descriptions and parameter combinations are adapted directly from Ioannidis [1]. The remaining columns contain the results from simulations of 5,000 published findings using different effect size distributions in our model. The parameters for the distributions are set so that the prevalence of effects above the minimum effect of interest approximate the odds specified by the scenario. Missing values in some scenarios occur when the desired prevalence cannot be achieved without changing the minimum effect of interest, thus complicating direct comparisons with other scenarios. * For Two Normals, one cannot obtain the desired prevalence (66,7%) without changing the minimum of interest threshold or the SD of the wider normal. A normal N(0, 1) has only about 62% of its mass beyond the minimum of interest. ** For Two Peaks, one cannot obtain the desired prevalence (0,1%) without changing theminimum of interest threshold. A normal distribution N(0, 0.2) -has over 1% of its mass beyond the minimum of interest on both sides. (XLSX)