Supplement 1. The WinBUGS code.

File List Lessepsian_WinBUGS.txt -- WinBUGS code Description The file "Lessepsian_WinBUGS.txt" contains the code for fitting the Bayesian model. To execute the code, the text must be pasted into a document window in WinBugs. To insert one's own data, replace the original data with the new data, which must include the number of sampling intervals (<i>T</i>), two vectors containing the number of new endemic and introduced species recorded at time <i>t</i> (new_species and new_species_L, respectively) and two vectors containing the cumulative number of endemic and introduced species recorded at time <i>t</i> (SM1 and SR1, respectively). It will probably be necessary to change the values of the initials before the model can run on a different data set. To construct a full model that allows for a linear monotonic trend in <i>u</i> through time, simply remove the # sing from the parameter "<i>beta1</i>" and replace the # signs between the two versions of logit(u[1]) and logit(u[i]). Note, that under the full model it is invalid to estimate <i>z</i>. <em>Note</em>: WinBUGS parameterizes the normal distribution in terms of the precision parameter "<i>tau</i>" which is the reciprocal of the variance parameter.