Reported and estimated dengue episodes in Southeast Asia, annual average (2001–2010).

Notes: ISO Alpha-3 codes were obtained from United Nations [60]; estimated lower and upper ranges are shown parenthesis; n.r. denotes not reported.
aEstimates for expansion factors (EFs) based on Undurraga et al. [7].
bPoint estimates were obtained by multiplying the average reported episodes of dengue in 2001–2010 by the corresponding EF, as reported by Undurraga et al. [7]. The range in parentheses for the total hospitalized and ambulatory dengue episodes and deaths corresponds to the 95% certainty level using 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. We varied EFs using triangular distributions based on [7], and assumed that the EF for the total deaths was the same as the EF for hospitalized dengue episodes. While more severe episodes of dengue are more likely to be reported, there is some evidence of underreporting of severe dengue resulting in death [61], and recent studies suggest that dengue is associated with several health complications [62]–[67]. We expect that some of these resulting deaths would not be reported as dengue.
cOfficially reported cases of dengue were available until September 2010, the number of cases for the remaining months were extrapolated based on comprehensive surveillance data from Thailand and Indonesia [31], [32], assuming that the time distribution of dengue episodes was similar.
Sources: [7], [12], [16], [17], [26], [27], [29]–[35], [60].