Modeling dynamic processes in the California ZEV market (2014-2016)

The market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) that primarily include battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) has been rapidly growing in California for the past few years. Given the targets for PEV penetration in the state, it is important to have a better understanding of the pattern of technology diffusion and the factors that are driving the process. Using spatial analysis and Poisson count models we identify the importance of a neighborhood effect (at home locations) and a peer effect (at commute destinations) in supporting the diffusion of PEV technology in California. In the case of new BEV sales, we find that exposure to one additional BEV or PHEV within a 1-mile radius of a block group centroid is associated with a 0.2% increase in BEV sales in the block group. Interestingly, for new PHEV sales- the neighborhood effect of BEV sales is negative, suggesting that enhanced exposure to this type of technology (which is differentiated in distinctive ways...