Sixteen-year predictors of successful aging from a Southern Brazilian cohort The PALA study

ABSTRACT Successful aging (SA) is a current positive aging-related perspective and it is important to determine the variables associated with this concept. Most longitudinal population-based studies on predictors of SA were carried out in developed countries. Objective: This investigation evaluated which baseline characteristics predicted successful aging in 16 years of follow-up in a southern Brazilian cohort - the Porto Alegre Longitudinal Aging study. Methods: At baseline, 345 community-dwelling healthy independent individuals aged 60 or older were assessed for medical and psychiatric conditions, memory, orientation, judgment and problem solving, functioning in the community and at home, and hobbies. SA, according to Rowe and Kahn’s definition, was the outcome assessed in the last evaluation at a maximum 16-year follow-up. All baseline variables were evaluated as potential predictors for the outcome SA. Results: Of the 345 individuals evaluated at baseline, 32 (9.3%) participants were classified as successful agers in the follow-up. Younger age (OR=0.926, 95%CI=0.863-0.994), female gender (OR=0.226, 95%CI=0.072-0.711) and higher MMSE (OR=1.220, 95%CI=1.031-1.444) were predictors of SA for the 16-year follow-up in a logistic regression model. Conclusion: In contrast with our previous hypothesis, the impact of the socioeconomic and socio-environmental characteristics was small, as was the baseline classification into successful and normal aging.