Habitat monitoring and projections for threatened Canada lynx: linking the Landsat archive with carnivore occurrence and prey density

Habitat degradation is the leading threat to US federally listed species, but monitoring changes in habitat extent, fragmentation or quality is not generally included in species recovery plans.
Consecutive satellite images of the same area through time are commonly used to assess landscape changes, and image data are increasingly used to generate predictor variables for species–habitat models. A time series of satellite images has, however, rarely been used in conjunction with a species–habitat model to map changes in habitat extent or to predict wildlife–habitat dynamics through time.
We used a time series of forest disturbance encompassing 16 530 km2 of forestland in Maine to map and quantify change in forest types that influence probability of occurrence (POC) of the threatened Canada lynx Lynx canadensis. Integration with a predictive occurrence model developed from landscape conditions c. 2004 allowed us to retrospectively (1973–2004) assess changes at 2- to 4-year intervals, upd...