Selected model performance validation based on holdout.

After choosing the length of training data for the backtests, derivation window (DW) and the length of forecasted window (FW), models were compared and validated for each disease by the AutoTS platform. 2018 was chosen as holdout and the predicted values were compared to the actual values. Model selection was based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Other calculated estimators such as Gamma Deviance, root mean square error (RMSE), R-squared and the mean absolute error (MAE) are listed as well.