Model results of 1-D global mixed layer depth ecosystem model, OGCM/OCMIP-Doney, 2003 (U.S. JGOFS Synthesis & Modeling Phase project results)

<p>The preliminary analysis of the WOCE/JGOFS global
ocean carbon survey has contributed greatly to an improved understanding
of the mean and perturbed state of the ocean carbon cycle.&nbsp; The global
carbon data set and associated new data analysis techniques have helped
to clarify among other issues the air-sea CO₂ flux fields, the
natural dissolved inorganic carbon background distributions, and the long-term
uptake patterns of anthropogenic carbon.&nbsp; A decade long, one-time
global survey, however, is less useful for constraining the temporal variability
of the ocean, for which we will have to turn to more directed measurement
programs and numerical models.&nbsp; Here, I propose to evaluate the impact
of interannual climate variability on the ocean carbon system using a state
of the art numerical global ocean circulation model, the NCAR CSM Ocean
Model (NCOM), driven with synoptic atmospheric forcing data sets either
from the NCEP reanalysis (1957-1996) or the coupled NCAR Climate System
Model.</p>

<p>The analysis of the resulting model variability in the air-sea CO₂
flux and subsurface dissolved inorganic carbon distribution will be focused
on two related questions:&nbsp;
<ol>
<li>
what is the oceanic contribution to the observed variability in the atmospheric
CO₂ growth rate?, and&nbsp;</li>

<li>
what type of sampling strategy is needed to quantify the long-term uptake
of anthropogenic carbon given the natural background variability?&nbsp;</li>
</ol>

Particular emphasis will be given to examining the physical and biological
mechanisms governing variability in the model and their relevance to the
real ocean.&nbsp; Oceanic and atmospheric carbon observations will be used
extensively to validate both the mean state and variability of the ocean
carbon model in collaboration with a number of co-investigators (D. Schimel,
NCAR; I. Fung, UC Berkeley; R. Wanninkhof, NOAA/AOML).&nbsp; This study
will provide also a framework for interpreting the WOCE/JGOFS global CO₂
survey and designing optimal future sampling networks.</p>