Present and future suitability of invasive and urban vectors through an environmentally-driven mosquito reproduction number

Temperature and water availability significantly influence mosquito population dynamics. We've devised a method, integrating experimental data with insights from mosquito and thermal biology, to calculate the basic reproduction number (RM) for urban mosquito species, Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti. RM represents the number of female mosquitoes produced by one female during her lifespan, indicating suitability for growth. Environmental conditions, including temperature, rainfall and human density influence RM by altering key mosquito life cycle traits. Validation using data from Spain and Europe confirms the approach's reliability. Our analysis suggests that temperature increases may not uniformly benefit Ae. albopictus proliferation but could boost Ae. aegypti expansion. We suggest using vector RM maps, leveraging climate and environmental data, to predict areas susceptible to invasive mosquito population growth. These maps aid in resource allocation for intervention strategies, supporting effective vector surveillance and management efforts.

Methods
 Presence-absence data spans the entire invasion process of Ae. albopictus in Spain from 2004 up to October 2023. Data from 2004 to 2014 originated from authoritative surveillance at the municipal level, mostly conducted through oviposition and adult traps. From 2014 to 2022, the data combined these authoritative methods with successful citizen science methodologies oriented towards surveillance (see daily updated maps in Europe at: https://map.mosquitoalert.com/spa/distribution/en). Spatially, the validation involved Ae. albopictus presence-absence presence data at the municipal level in five administrative regions of Spain (Andalusia, Aragon, Catalonia, Valencian Community, Basque Country). Also, at the European scale, we use presence-absence data for October 2023 from the Mosquito Alert citizen science platform. It combines data from the ECDC agency and citizen science data. Presence-absence data at the European scale corresponds to administrative units at the NUTS 3 level, roughly matching the province level. Spanish municipalities, which are at a smaller scale than NUTS 3, provide presence-absence data at a finer resolution. Therefore we have two data sets with presence-absence, one for Europe and one for Spain with finer resolution. The mosquito trap count data originated from a total of 13 BG-Sentinel traps distributed across various municipalities in the NE Spain (Catalonia region) with the following numbers: Blanes (11), Lloret de Mar (1), Palafolls (1), Tordera (1). The traps operated from November 2020 until December 2022 for Blanes, from September 2020 until December 2022 for Palafolls, from May 2020 until December 2022 for Todera, from June 2020 until November 2020 for Lloret de Mar, and mosquito samples were collected every week.

The code to reproduce all the figures in the manuscript is in a zip folder.