长白山椴树蜂蜜销量预测数据

通过销量的预测，可以帮助企业提前合理预测销量，库存应该备货多少，若库存不足，则发出预警信号，方便制定采购计划。进一步拓展农产品销售渠道，助力浙江现代化先行和共同富裕示范区建设，努力探索出一条符合上级要求、具有时代特征、彰显当地特色的乡村振兴之路。1.数据采集：采集湖州两山农品小程序的销售和订单信息以及后台库存信息。2.数据处理：对采集到的原始数据进行处理，去除缺失和异常数据。 3.数据分析：采用加权移动平均法预测销量，预测销量S=（S1*k1+S2*k2+S3*k3）/（k1+k2+k3），S1：上一个月的销量，S2：上上一个月的销量，S3：上上上一个月的销量，k1、k2、k3为权重系数，根据该类商品历史数据计算得出分别为3.1、2.2、1.3。库存健康监测P=实际库存/预计月销量，库存健康阈值Q1=1.5，Q2=3，库存预警=IFS（P＜Q1，“库存不足”，Q1≤P≤Q2，“库存健康”，“库存积压”）。4.数据应用：通过销量的预测，可以帮助企业提前合理预测销量，库存应该备货多少，若库存不足，则发出预警信号，需要及时考虑补货，若库存积压，则需要推出活动及时清理库存。

Sales forecasting can help enterprises reasonably predict sales volume in advance and determine appropriate inventory stocking levels. When inventory is insufficient, an early warning signal can be issued to facilitate the formulation of procurement plans. This will further expand the sales channels for agricultural products, support the construction of Zhejiang’s modernization pioneer and common prosperity demonstration zone, and strive to explore a rural revitalization path that meets the requirements of higher authorities, reflects the characteristics of the times, and highlights local features.
1. Data Collection: Collect sales, order and background inventory information from the Huzhou Liangshan Agricultural Products Mini Program.
2. Data Processing: Process the collected raw data by removing missing and abnormal data entries.
3. Data Analysis: Adopt the weighted moving average method to forecast sales volume, with the forecasting formula: $S=(S_1*k_1 + S_2*k_2 + S_3*k_3)/(k_1 + k_2 + k_3)$, where $S_1$ is the sales volume of the previous month, $S_2$ is the sales volume of the month before last, $S_3$ is the sales volume of two months prior, and $k_1, k_2, k_3$ are the weight coefficients calculated based on the historical data of the corresponding commodity, which are 3.1, 2.2 and 1.3 respectively. For inventory health monitoring, the formula is $P= ext{Actual Inventory}/ ext{Estimated Monthly Sales Volume}$. The inventory health thresholds are $Q1=1.5$ and $Q2=3$. The inventory early warning rule is defined as: $ ext{IFS}(P < Q1, "Insufficient Inventory", Q1 ≤ P ≤ Q2, "Healthy Inventory", "Overstocked Inventory")$.
4. Data Application: Through sales forecasting, enterprises can reasonably predict sales volume in advance and determine appropriate inventory stocking levels. When inventory is insufficient, an early warning signal will be issued to prompt timely stock replenishment; when inventory is overstocked, promotional activities should be launched to clear the inventory promptly.

搜集汇总

数据集介绍

特点

该数据集包含679条长白山椴树蜂蜜的销售数据，每月更新，用于销量预测和库存管理。算法采用加权移动平均法预测销量，并结合库存健康监测帮助企业优化采购和库存策略。