A computational cognitive theory of temporal reasoning

I describe a novel model-based theory of how individuals reason deductively about temporal relations. It posits that temporal assertions refer to mental models -- iconic representations of possibilities -- of events. In line with recent accounts of spatial reasoning, the theory posits that individuals tend to build a single preferred model of a temporal description. The more models necessary to yield a correct answer, the harder that problem is. The theory is implemented in a computer program, mReasoner, which draws temporal deductions by building models. It varies three parameters governing separate factors in the process: the size of a model, the typicality of its contents, and the propensity to search for alternative models. Two experiments corroborat the predictions of the theory and its computational implementation. I conclude by discussing temporal and relational inference more broadly.

本研究提出了一种基于模型的关于个体如何进行时间关系演绎推理的新理论。该理论认为，时间断言指的是事件的心理模型——象征性的可能性表征。与近期关于空间推理的描述相一致，该理论提出，个体倾向于构建一个单一的首选时间描述模型。需要更多模型以得出正确答案的问题，其难度越大。该理论通过构建模型来进行时间推理，并在计算机程序mReasoner中得到实现。该程序在处理过程中调整三个参数以控制不同因素：模型的大小、其内容的典型性以及搜索替代模型的倾向性。两项实验验证了该理论及其计算实现的预测。最后，本文更广泛地讨论了时间推理和关系推理。