Estimation on groundwater bearing capacity of animal based on fuzzy linear programming in China

Objective While breeding animals，a substantial amount of groundwater is consumed to clean pens and for them to drink.China is a water-scarce country.The scientific and rational use of groundwater resources is essential for the green development of animal breeding.Therefore，modeling the bearing capacity of groundwater resources for animal breeding is crucial for promoting the integration of regional planting and breeding，as well as ensuring the sustainable use of groundwater resources. Method This study evaluated the groundwater pressure of animal breeding in 31 provinces（autonomous regions and municipalities）of China from 2013 to 2022.Nine of them，including Tianjin，Hebei，Inner Mongolia，Liaoning，Jilin，Shandong，Henan，Gansu and Ningxia，were selected as the research objects.Based on the annual fluctuations in groundwater availability，the fuzzy linear programming method was employed to construct a groundwater resource bearing capacity model for animal farming.Additionally，the scenario analysis method was employed to simulate and optimize the suitable animal breeding volume. Result From 2013 to 2022，the groundwater pressure values for animal breeding in China ranged from 0.8% to 1.1%，with small inter-annual differences.Spatially，the groundwater pressure values of animal breeding in the northern region were higher than those in the southern region.Those in the eastern region were higher than those in the western region.Besides，the pressure values such as those in Tianjin fluctuated between 1.3% and 5.9%，which was higher than the national average.The fuzzy linear programming model revealed that when the water consumption of animals was reduced by 50%，the optimization result of groundwater bearing capacity for animal farming in Tianjin，Hebei，Inner Mongolia，Liaoning，Jilin，Shandong，Henan，Gansu and Ningxia was 20 million，680 million，480 million，90 million，110 million，130 million，250 million，90 million and 30 million heads respectively.And it was 1.6，4.2，2.7，1.1，1.8，1.1，1.9，2.8 and 1.7 times the current breeding volume. Conclusion If the animal water consumption had been reduced，the animal breeding industry would have significant development potential.Therefore，it was recommended that other provinces draw on Ningxia's water rights reform experience to develop localized systems for animal water rights allocation and establish water rights trading markets tailored to regional characteristics.Water-saving technologies and related facilities should be promoted，to facilitate the transition from traditional animal husbandry to water-efficient animal husbandry.