Modeling spatial expansion of invasive alien species: relative contributions of environmental and anthropogenic factors to the spreading of the harlequin ladybird in France

Species distribution models (SDM) have often been used to predict the potential ranges of introduced species and prioritize management strategies. However, this approach assumes equilibrium between occurrences and environmental gradients, an assumption which is violated during the invasion process, where many suitable sites are empty because the species has not yet reached them. Here we considered the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis as a case study to show the benefits of using a dynamic colonization–extinction model that does not assume equilibrium. We used a multi-year occupancy model incorporating environmental, anthropogenic and neighborhood effects, to identify factors that explained spreading variation of this species in France from 2004, when only a few occupied sites were detected, to 2011. We found that anthropogenic factors (urbanization, agriculture, vineyards, and presence/absence of highways) explained more variation in the diffusion process than environmental factors (...