Simulated and Observed Arrival Times.

Numbers given for observed and simulated C. brevitarsis arrival times denote the month after October i.e. Zone 1 November, Zone 2 December, Zone 3 January, Zone 4 February, Zone 6 March. A dash (-) indicates that C. brevitarsis were not observed (in reality or in simulations) in that year at that location; these sites were excluded from the analysis for that year.* Significance p-value is the probability that the agreement kappa value would be found given that simulation and observation were uncorrelated i.e. if simulation results were random.