The simulation of the wetland biodiversity pattern under dif-ferent land use policies in Sanjiang Plain

Abstract: Involving wetland protection policies into the simulation of the wetland bio-diversity pattern has the potential to improve the accuracy of policy making. In this research, combining the land use change simulation model CA-Markov and a wetland biodiversity simulation model based on hydrological pattern and connectivity, we put forward a comprehensive framework that integrates policy stage division, stage char-acteristics identification, and biodiversity prediction. This framework divided wetland conservation policies implemented in the study area into three stages: promoting (1995-2005), strengthening (2005-2010), and stabilizing (2010-2020). CA-Markov veri-fication confirmed the stages' consistency with actual policy implementation, indicat-ing its usability. Using land use data of different policy stages as input for CA-Markov model, we then predicted the wetland biodiversity pattern in 2030 under different scenarios. The results showed that, the land use and wetland protection policies im-plemented during 2010~2020 were most beneficial for enhancing wetland biodiversity in the study area, with an expected increase of about 8% if continued. This study offers technical and scheme references for the future evaluation of wetland-related policies at the regional scale. It also provides guidance for optimizing the spatial structure and providing numerical goals of land use and wetland protection.