Total Agriculture Climate Impact Distributions

Percentiles of agricultural impacts due to climate change, organized by level of aggregation, climate scenario, and time period.

Agricultural impacts are estimated by applying future climate data to dose-response functions of yields for maize, wheat, cotton, and soybeans, and combining them according to land area.  The dose-response functions include the effects of moderate and extreme temperatures, precipitation, and CO2 fertilization.

The uncertainty represented by these percentiles comes from a combination of statistical uncertainty in the dose-response functions, climate uncertainty across GCMs, and within-month weather realization, as sampled by Monte Carlo runs.

The archive contains four folders: county_20a with county-level impacts, state_20yr with state-aggregated impacts, nca_20yr with NCA-region aggregated impacts, and national_20y with nationally aggregated impacts.  Aggregation is weighted by planted area within each region

The files are labeled as follow:

yields-total--.

The RCP may be RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, or RCP 8.5; the years are "2020", for average impacts during 2020 - 2039, "2040" for impacts 2040 - 2059, and "2080" for impacts 2080 - 2099.  Files with the suffix 'b.csv' contain percent changes; those with the suffix '-absolute.csv' contain level changes in MT.

The columns of these files specify the region (using the FIPS code for counties), and the quantiles from 1% ("q0.01") to 99% ("q0.99").

This data is provided for non-commercial research and educational purposes.