A method for estimating population sex ratio for sage-grouse using noninvasive genetic samples

Population sex ratio is an important metric for wildlife management and conservation, but estimates can be difficult to obtain, particularly for sexually monomorphic species or for species that differ in detection probability between the sexes. Noninvasive genetic sampling (NGS) using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has become a common method for identifying sex from sources such as hair, feathers, or feces, and is a potential source for estimating sex ratio. If, however, PCR success is sex-biased, naively using NGS could lead to a biased sex ratio estimator. We measured PCR success rates and error rates for amplifying the W and Z chromosomes from greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) fecal samples, examined how success and error rates for sex identification changed in response to fecal sample exposure time, and used simulation models to evaluate precision and bias of 3 sex assignment criteria for estimating population sex ratio with variable sample sizes and levels of PCR rep...