Modeling the effects of physician emigration on human development

This paper quantifies the effects of physician emigration on human development indicators in developing countries. First, the geographical distribution and evolution of physician brain drain is documented for the period 1991-2004. Second, random and fixed effects models were employed to investigate the effects of physicians in the home countries and abroad on child mortality and vaccination rates. And third, models were estimated to investigate migration induced incentives and possible brain gain in the medical sector. The results showed positive effects of migration prospects on medical training though the magnitude was too small for generating a net brain gain. Also, infant and child mortality rates were negatively associated with the number of physicians per capita after the adult literacy rate exceeded sixty percent. The results for Diphteria, Pertussis andd Tetanus (DPT) and measles vaccinations underscored the importance of literacy rates and physicians per capita for higher vaccination uptake. Finally, from the standpoint of millennium development goals, reducing brain drain is likely to have only small effects on child mortality and vaccination rates.