Research data supporting "Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty"

This dataset contains the data used in the paper "Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty". It contains: (1) 1000 stochastic volcanic forcing input files in monthly and yearly means (forcing_input.zip); (2) FaIR model simulation results (in netcdf files, see description below); (3) Tables containing data for the probability of short-term (one-year and two-year) GMST reduction/increase to reproduce Figure 3a, S3 and S5. (table_prob_1year_cooling.csv, table_prob_2year_cooling.csv, table_prob_1year_warming.csv, and table_prob_2year_warming.csv); (4) Decadal temperature trends applied with a 10-year moving window to reproduce Figure 3b and S4. (decadal_trend_moving_df2.nc, and decadal_trend_moving_dn.nc) (5) Stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), effective radiative forcing (ERF), and global mean surface temperature (GMST) data from Chim et al. (2023) simulated by UKESM under SSP3-7.0 to reproduce Figure S6 (monthly_saod_Chim2023.zip, annual_surtemp_Chim2023.zip, annual_erf_Chim2023.zip). (6) 1000 stochastic volcanic eruption scenarios from Chim et al. (2023). (df_combined.pickle) (7) Data to plot distribution of eruption location and month of the 1000 stochastic scenarios (Figure S8 and S9) (df_season.csv) The code used in the paper is available from https://github.com/maychim/Stochastic-volc-FAIR. _________________________________________ Details of the FaIR model simulation data: - no_volcanoes_future.nc This netcdf file contains the historical and future (1850-2101) GMST projection under SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 without volcanic forcing and internal variability. - stochastic_volcanoes.nc This netcdf file contains the historical and future (1850-2101) GMST projection under SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 with stochastic volcanic forcing and no internal variability. - stochastic_volcanoes_stochastic_climate.nc This netcdf file contains the historical and future (1850-2101) GMST projection under SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 with both stochastic volcanic forcing and internal variability. - no_future_volcanoes_stochastic_climate.nc This netcdf file contains the historical and future (1850-2101) GMST projection under SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 without volcanic forcing and with internal variability. - constant_SAOD_scenarios.nc This netcdf file contains the GMST projection under SSP2-4.5 using three constant volcanic forcings scenarios. The constant forcings have magnitude equivalent to the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles of the SAOD distribution of the 1000 stochastic scenarios. - ukesm_calibration_five_scenarios.nc This netcdf file contains the GMST projection under SSP3-7.0 for five stochastic volcanic forcings scenarios with the FaIR model calibrated with UKESM parameters. The forcing scenarios have magnitude equivalent to the stochastic scenarios at the 2.5th, 50.0th, 50.5th, 97.5th and 98.0th percentiles of the ranked total sulfur mass (same as the scenarios in Chim et al. (2023)).