Fire refugia facilitate forest and savanna co‐existence as alternative stable states

Aim: Does complex topography facilitate the establishment and persistence of fire‐ sensitive (forest) vegetation in a fire‐prone landscape? We test the prediction that fire‐sensitive vegetation will establish and persist in areas where the fire return interval is lower due to a topographic hindrance on fire spread. Location: Hluhluwe–iMfolozi Park, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa.

Methods: Using aerial photographs from six time periods between 1937 and 2013, we mapped vegetation changes in Hluhluwe–iMfolozi Park (HiP). Using a general‐ ized additive model (GAM), we built a habitat suitability index (HSI) map for forest vegetation based on topographic variables related to fire behaviour and the vegeta‐ tion distribution maps from each time period. We investigated transitions between vegetation types between time periods based on the HSI map, as well as the effects of neighbourhood vegetation on transition probabilities.

Results: Forest cover has increased overall from 1937 to 2013, how...