Spatial-temporal differentiation of ecological efficiency of cultivated land use and its influencing factors in the Circum-Tarim Economic Belt

Studying the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in the Circum-Tarim Economic Belt holds strong practical significance to promote the coordinated development of local food security and ecological protection. Based on the super-efficiency SBM model, this study measured the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use at the county level from 2014 to 2021. By introducing methods such as the coefficient of variation, kernel density estimation, the center-of-gravity migration model, and the Tobit model, it analyzed the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use. The results show that the overall ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in the study area needs to be improved. In terms of time sequence, a fluctuating and stabilizing trend of first decreasing and then increasing is evident. Concerning space, a differentiation pattern has emerged, with the upper reaches of the Tarim River and the large-scale farming areas of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC) as high-value areas, and the ecologically fragile zone on the northern foot of the Kunlun Mountains as low-value areas. Regarding influencing factors, the multiple cropping index of cultivated land, the agricultural planting structure, and the proportion of primary industry output value are key positive drivers, whereas the amount of chemical fertilizer applied per unit area of cultivated land is the main constraining factor. Finally, countermeasures are proposed from paths such as enhancing cultivated land productivity, guiding the transformation of farmers’ planting practices, and deepening XPCC-local cooperation. The research results can provide a reference for promoting low-carbon agricultural production and high-quality agricultural development in arid areas.