National estimates of U.S. storm surge extremes and underlying long-term trends (1950-2020) using spatiotemporal non-stationary Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling

NOTE: all data and associated articles (listed below) require proper acknowlement, citation and referencing of all data when directly or indirectly using any archived file listed below. These observation-based estimates have been produced by modeling storm surge extremes from tide gauge data using a non-stationary spatio-temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BAYEX): Our dataset (version 1 in zenodo) contains a summary of estimates, including: Posterior median estimates of skew surge return levels (m) and associated credible interval (CI) values for 208 tide gauge locations Posterior-median estimates of skew surge return levels (m) and associated credible interval (CI) values for the entire U.S. coastlines and Posterior-median estimates of trends in skew surge extremes (mm/year) along U.S. coastlines over three different historical periods (1950-2020, 1975-2020 and 1950-1975) and their probability (P) of existing in the direction of the posterior-median sign (P ranges from 0 to 100%) The dataset also provides: Posterior-median estimates of skew surge return levels (m) and associated credible interval (CI) values for 208 tide guage locations using a traditional single-site GEV model based on Bayesian Inference. In version 2 in zenodo (https://zenodo.org/records/15711412), we provide corrected/updated: Posterior-median estimates of GEV parameters (shape, scale and location) and associated credible interval (CI) values for 208 tide gauge Posterior-median estimates of GEV parameters (shape, scale and location) and associated credible interval (CI) values for the entire U.S. coastlines NOTE: all data and associated articles (listed below) require proper acknowlement, citation and referencing of all data when directly or indirectly using any archived file listed above. Associated publications: Morim, J., Wahl, T., Rasmussen, D.J. et al. Observations reveal changing coastal storm extremes around the United States. Nature Climate Change (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02315-z Associated model: Calafat, F. M. (2024). BAYEX: Spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extremes with max-stable processes (v3.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10967174 The full reanalysis data with predicted storm surges and extreme sea levels at ungauged sites are available here: Morim, J. (2025). Observation-based probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge and sea level extremes for United States., [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10967174 Media: https://cpree.princeton.edu/news/2025/researchers-uncover-clearer-patterns-extreme-storm-surge-trends-amid-rising-sea-levels