Designing class-specific residential time-of-use tariff for Ukraine

This study develops a class-specific three-zone residential tariff for Ukraine based on contribution coefficients that assign stronger peak penalties and off-peak rewards to classes with larger shares of consumption in the corresponding , time-of-use (TOU) zones. Its evaluation involves clustering archetypal residential load profiles (ARLPs) into tariff classes defined by observable attributes, enabling straightforward assignment. Each ARLP provides an 8,760-hour profile for a specific segment of Ukrainian households. The ARLPs are synthesized by filtering and reweighting NREL ResStock end-use load profiles (EULPs) to reflect Ukrainian conditions. ResStock 2024 is screened for climatic and technical compatibility, leaving 4,435 candidate EULPs, of which 3,145 match at least one of the 19 segments derived from national electricity consumption and housing stock statistics. Segment-specific weights are estimated through quadratic optimization to approximate Ukrainian household counts, annual electricity consumption and, where feasible, appliance ownership rates. ARLPs_EULPs weight matrix.csv - contains the compositional mapping from 3,145 compatible NREL ResStock EULPs to the 19 Ukrainian residential segments. Each ARLP is represented by a weight vector.EULP_4435_hourly_load.csv - contains 8,760-h electricity demand profiles for 4,435 NREL ResStock buildings, with each column identified by its ResStock building ID. The file provides the source load shapes used to synthesize the 19 Ukrainian ARLPs. DAM_2019-2025_v05_Full.xlsx - contains hourly Ukrainian day-ahead market data from October 2019 to October 2025. The main sheet reports clearing prices in sell, buy and declared volumes, and the applicable regulatory price cap for each hour, while companion sheets contain the price-cap schedules. The dataset provides the wholesale price signal used to evaluate system-level effects of demand response under the alternative tariff designs. The following files report the class-level results derived from the 19 ARLPs. The residential segments are clustered into five tariff classes: A, B and C for non-electric-space-heating (non-ESH) households (HHs) and ESH-1 and ESH-2 for electric-space-heating ones. Aggregate class loads are weighted by ARLP-implied household counts. Hours are reported as hour-ending 1-24, and the seasons are winter (October-April) and summer (May-September). 1_class_load_8760h_MWh.csv - contains the 8,760-h aggregate load of each of the five tariff classes on the modelling calendar, in MWh per hour. Class loads are calculated by multiplying the per-HH profiles of the member ARLPs by their implied HH counts. The resulting annual totals reproduce the class-level consumption reported in the manuscript. 2_class_repday_24h_MWh.csv - contains representative 24-h load profiles for each class, in MWh per hour, reported separately for winter, summer and the full year. Each hourly value is the mean load across all days in the corresponding period. 2b_class_repday_24h_peaknorm.csv - contains the same representative 24-h class profiles peak-normalized to the 0-1 range. 3_dam2024_repday_load_24h.csv - contains the representative 24-h Ukrainian DAM volume profile for 2024, in MWh, reported separately for winter, summer and the full year, together with its peak-normalized load shapes. 4_dam2024_prices_24h.csv — contains the average 2024 DAM price by hour-ending, reported separately for winter, summer and the full year. Prices are provided as the wholesale clearing price and as a gross retail-equivalent price in $/kWh, calculated by adding a $0.065/kWh delivery, distribution and margin markup to the wholesale price. 5_dam2024_zone_prices_vs_tariffs.csv — contains the average 2024 DAM gross price for each TOU zone alongside the existing flat tariff and the existing three-zone tariff at its regular and winter-discounted base rates, all in $/kWh. 6_table7_proposed_tariff_supplemented.csv — contains the proposed three-zone tariff reported, expressed as $/kWh rates by zone, class and season. It is supplemented with consumption-weighted full year rates and an all-class aggregate. 6b_table7_original.csv - contains the manuscript version of the table, reporting class-specific contribution coefficients and tariff rates. ESH rates are presented as winter-discount bands, and the existing three-zone tariff is included for reference.