Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change

Given the major ongoing influence of environmental change on the oceans, there is a need to understand and predict the future distributions of marine species in order to plan appropriate mitigation to conserve vulnerable species and ecosystems. In this study we use tracking data from seven large seabird species of the Southern Ocean (Black-browed Albatross Thalassarche melanophris, Grey-headed Albatross T. chrysostoma, Northern Giant Petrel Macronectes halli, Southern Giant Petrel M. giganteus, Tristan Albatross Diomedea dabbenena Wandering Albatross D. exulans and White-chinned Petrel Procellaria aequinoctialis , and on fishing effort in two types of fisheries (characterised by low or high-bycatch rates), to model the associations with environmental variables (bathymetry, chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature and wind speed) through ensemble Species Distribution Models. We then project these distributions according to four climate change scenarios built by the Intergover...