"Replication Data for: Choosing Challengers: Opposition Party Success in Hard Times"

Voters commonly respond to economic downturns by punishing incumbents. But what about the fate of the opposition? When assessing policymaker performance in tough times, do voters choose an established party with experience as head of government or an inexperienced challenger? Re-search on the rise of challengers emphasizes issue opinions and elite strategies. We argue instead that voter choices, for incumbents, main opposition options, and challengers alike, are shaped by perceptions of competence. While selecting unproven challengers is risky, we predict voters are more likely to bear these risks when the duration of economic underperformance is long and the government’s tenure is short. By depressing competence of dominant parties, this opens a window for parties lacking executive experience. A series of analyses provides evidence in support of our argument. By showing that parties in opposition can be distinguished on competence grounds, study findings widen the lens of how electoral accountability works.