Dataset and scripts from: Predicting organismal response to marine heatwaves using dynamic thermal tolerance landscape models

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause thermal stress in marine organisms, experienced as extreme ‘pulses’ against the gradual trend of anthropogenic warming. When thermal stress exceeds organismal capacity to maintain homeostasis, organism survival becomes time-limited and can result in mass mortality events. Current methods of detecting and categorizing MHWs rely on statistical analysis of historic climatology, and do not consider biological effects as a basis of MHW severity. The reemergence of ectotherm thermal tolerance landscape models provides a physiological framework for assessing the lethal effects of MHWs by accounting for both the magnitude and duration of extreme heat events. Here, we used a simulation approach to understand the effects of a suite of MHW profiles on organism survival probability across 1) three thermal tolerance adaptive strategies, 2) interannual temperature variation, and 3) seasonal timing of MHWs. We identified survival isoclines across MHW magnitude and dur..., The marine heatwave dataset used in this study was simulated using the included code. While the entirity of each script can be run from start to finish, we have silenced strategic chunks in each .rmd document and added data read-in lines to speed up script execution. Running silenced chunks of each .rmd file can result in long computation times. Detailed information about data and script files can be found in the README.md document.
Creation of MHW profiles: We simulated MHW profiles that covered a range of magnitudes (0-8 °C, 0-20 °C in extended analysis script, 0.5 °C interval) and durations (1 hour - 30 days, 1 day interval). We accomplished this by first simulating the MHW component of a temperature time series in the shape of a triangle - that is, a ramp up and ramp down period of equal lengths and no plateau period at the maximum magnitude. We next simulated a climatological time series over the year 2022 using a sine wave with a mean of 12°C and a range of 14°C, thus giving a min..., , # Marine Heatwave Simulation Analysis

Code and data to replicate results in Villeneuve and White 2024, Journal of Animal Ecology.

To set correct relative file paths, download the entire folder onto your local machine, unzip, and open the R project mhw_simulation_manuscript2024.rproj.

There are three major R markdown scripts that replicate analyses and figures from our paper:

* mhw_sim_analysis.Rmd - Bulk of analysis. Can knit entire document, or run select chunks. Some chunks are very time and computationally intensive, so we provide .RDs data files that can be read in at checkpoints to speed rendering of the document. These data files can be replicated by running chunks that are not evaluated in the markdown. A rendered .html file of the markdown is also available.
* conceptual_figure.Rmd - Script to produce conceptual figure panels in the manuscript. A rendered .html file of the markdown is also available.
* tdt_premise_extended.Rmd - Script to produce supplementary figure 1...