Cost-effectiveness of screening for atrial fibrillation in a single primary care center at a 3-year follow-up

The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of intermittent electrocardiogram (ECG) screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) among 70–74-year old individuals in primary care. We also aimed to assess adherence to anticoagulants, severe bleeding, stroke and mortality among screening-detected AF cases at three-year follow-up. A post hoc analysis based on a cross-sectional screening study for AF among 70–74-year old patients, who were registered at a single primary care center, was followed for three years for mortality. Data about adherence to anticoagulants, incidence of stroke and severe bleeding among screening-detected AF cases, were collected from patient’s records. Markov model and Monte Carlo simulation were used to assess the cost-effectiveness of the screening program. The mortality rate among screening-detected AF cases (<i>n</i> = 16) did not differ compared to the 274 individuals with no AF (hazard ratio 0.86, CI 0.12–6.44). Adherence to anticoagulants was 92%. There was no stroke or severe bleeding. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of screening versus no screening was EUR 2389/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The screening showed a 99% probability of being cost-effective compared to no screening at a willingness-to-pay threshold of EUR 20,000 per QALY. Screening for AF among 70–74-year olds in primary care using intermittent ECG appears to be cost-effective at 3-year follow-up with high anticoagulants adherence and no increased mortality.