Carbon Neutrality Drives PAH Mitigation and Multimedia Health Cobenefits in China

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are potent carcinogens with important coemission sources with CO2, but the emission reduction potential and health cobenefits of various decarbonization pathways remain unexplored. This study addresses this gap by developing an integrated modeling framework to quantify PAH emission reductions, spatial distribution in multimedia, and associated health impacts under distinct carbon mitigation scenarios. Here we show that, from 2020 to 2060, enhanced climate policies could reduce CO2 emissions by 9.5 Gt and simultaneously mitigate PAH emissions by 42.8 kt (equivalent to 65.8% of the 2020 level). Synergistic emission reductions vary across sectors, and energy production contributes the most to the reduction of PAH emissions due to the optimization of the energy mix. Under the carbon-neutral scenario, national BaP concentrations in air, soil, and water decreased significantly by 2060, with maximum reductions of 13.42 ng/m3, 145 ng/g, and 133 ng/L, respectively. Health risks in populated areas, particularly in East China, South China, and parts of North China, will decrease by more than 50% in 2060, indicating the large health cobenefits of carbon neutrality. Our findings suggest that achieving climate targets in advance, especially in China’s priority sectors and regions, will simultaneously create substantial synergistic benefits for PAH-related air quality and public health.