Data_Sheet_1_Effectiveness and Economic Viability of Johne's Disease (Paratuberculosis) Control Practices in Dairy Herds.pdf

Johne's disease (JD or paratuberculosis) control programs have been established in many dairy-producing regions. However, the effectiveness (reduction of within-herd prevalence) and the relative economic impact as measured by, for example, the ratio of benefits to costs (BCR) across a comprehensive selection of regions and potential control practices require further investigation. Within a Markovian framework using region-specific economic variables, it was estimated that vaccination was the most promising type of JD control practice modeled, with dual-effect vaccines (reducing shedding and providing protective immunity) having BCRs between 1.48 and 2.13 in Canada, with a break-even period of between 6.17 and 7.61 years. Dual-effect vaccines were also estimated to yield BCRs greater than one in almost all major dairy-producing regions, with greater ratios in regions characterized by above-average farm-gate prices and annual production per cow. Testing and culling was comparably effective to a dual-effect vaccine at test sensitivities >70% but would remain economically unviable in almost all regions modeled.

约翰逊病（JD 或副结核病）的控制项目已在许多乳制品生产区域建立。然而，其有效性（降低群内流行率）以及按例如收益与成本比（BCR）等指标衡量的相对经济影响，在广泛的区域和潜在控制措施中的表现，仍需进一步研究。在运用区域特定经济变量的马尔可夫框架下，疫苗接种被评估为最具有潜力的JD控制措施，双效疫苗（降低排泄物排放并提供保护性免疫）在加拿大的BCR介于1.48至2.13之间，盈亏平衡期为6.17至7.61年。双效疫苗还被预测在几乎所有主要乳制品生产区域产生BCR大于一的结果，且在农场门价格和每头牛年产量高于平均水平的区域，该比例更高。在测试敏感性超过70%的情况下，检测和淘汰与双效疫苗具有相当的效果，但在模型化的大部分区域，从经济角度考虑将不可行。