(Re)Emerging Disease and Conflict Risk in Africa, 1997 – 2019

While the number of infectious zoonotic disease outbreaks has been rising, their impact on civil war and social conflict is poorly understood. This study addresses this fundamental limitation using a new geolocated monthly dataset on 22 zoonotic diseases in Africa. Zoonotic disease is a key driver of new epidemics, making such pathogens a useful test case. Results suggest that over the January 1997 – December 2019 period, zoonotic disease constrained state military activity, but are associated with an increased the risk of social conflict involving non-state actors, an effect that is established as causal. Evidence suggests this intensification was due to local civil defense mobilization rather than to governments’ decision to rely on militia groups for help. Rebel violence is not noticeably sensitive to outbreaks. The results are robust to endogeneity concerns and many additional sensitivity analyses.