Time of activity is a better predictor of the distribution of a tropical lizard than pure environmental temperatures

Environmental temperatures influence ectotherms’ physiology and capacity to perform activities necessary for survival and reproduction. Time available to perform those activities is determined by thermal tolerances and environmental temperatures. Estimates of activity time might enhance our ability to predict suitable areas for species’ persistence in face of climate warming, compared to the exclusive use of environmental temperatures, without considering thermal tolerances. We compare the ability of environmental temperatures and estimates of activity time to predict the geographic distribution of a tropical lizard, Tropidurus torquatus. We compared 105 estimates of activity time, resulting from the combination of four methodological decisions: (1) How to estimate daily environmental temperature variation (modeling a sinusoid wave ranging from monthly minimum to maximum temperature, extrapolating from operative temperatures measured in field or using biophysical projections of microcli...