MNA/L2 U.S. Voters Predictive Analytics models (Sample 10k/213M)

MNA-L2 National models offer individual-level insights into the current National and State political landscapes. The models cover all campaign bases, including generic partisan vote choice, turnout propensity, named possible presidential vote choice in the 2024 General Election, Presidential Primary vote choice and type, nationally relevant public figure image probability, Presidential job approval, national and state tracks, and Gubernatorial reelection propensity.

The data also offers models relating to familiar, ubiquitous messaging tropes likely to form the core of the political advertising environment in the 2024 election cycle. These models allow users to understand the propensity of a voter to be persuaded by messaging that finds its roots in one of the message tropes modeled at the individual level. Additionally, the data contains 32 issue models, covering various politically relevant and current issues for voters and policymakers. The issue models provide information on targeting, position, and intensity for each individual voter.

Our models are constructed from large-scale, dynamic, state-level survey results and L2’s extensive voter data. Each model takes on the character of state peculiarities, election laws, and sub-geographies while remaining reflective of the national environment. Our models are intended to offer subscribers the ability to target, carve, and segment voters to best fit campaign strategies that do and do not correlate with individual partisanship from the National to the municipal scale broadly, deeply, and granularly.

Murphy Nasica Associates (MNA) is a national full-service political consulting and analytics firm with offices in Dallas, Austin, and the Texas Rio Grande Valley. With consulting and analytics experience in all 50 states, MNA uses innovative research techniques grounded in sound political theory to win victories for right-aligned candidates and causes.

The L2 National Voter File is a collection of all currently registered U.S. voters. The database is created from frequently-refreshed state and county public registration files and then enhanced with telephone numbers, rooftop lat/longs, modeled data, census data and multiple sources of commercial data. Voter registration data, as provided by each state, always includes names, addresses, political district assignments and uniform voting history (detailed voter history available on demand).
Those data typically also include registration date, gender, party affiliation and birthdate or age. L2 matches highly accurate telephone numbers into these files including individual cell phone numbers for 30% or more of the voters as well as landlines. All telephone numbers are cleaned by purging known disconnected numbers from L2's proprietary and unique collection of nearly 150,000,000 known disconnected numbers.

The L2 National Voter File is used by the country's leading universities and public opinion pollsters for research, by all the leading cable and broadcast networks for targeting political advertising, by nearly half of all members of Congress for constituent contact and by political campaigns from the presidential level down to local city council races seeking to reach and persuade voters.

The full dataset is available on demand and includes the following fields:

Primary Ballot
- Democratic Primary First Choice - Net Biden
- Republican Primary First Choice - Net Trump

Environment
- Presidential Job Approval

Voter Classification
- Self-Described Ideology Capture

Generic and Named Ballot
- Generic Presidential Ballot
- Other Dem vs. Trump Named Presidential Ballot
- Biden vs. Trump vs. RFK Named Presidential Ballot

Image
- Image - Joe Biden
- Image - Donal Trump
- Image - Kamala Harris

Messaging
- Bidenomics Message
- Woke Ideology Message
- Border Migrant Crisis Message
- Ukraine War Message